The 2020 election is less than 6 months away, and California has a real opportunity to play a key factor in it. Multiple districts here can be flipped by Republicans if voter turnout is there. If Republicans can get out the vote like they did in 2016 and flip these seats back into R control, then it gives the GOP a real good chance at taking the house away from Gavin Newsom’s Aunt, Nancy “My district has human feces in the streets” Pelosi.
The turnout also has to be mostly in-person voting, none of this mail-in nonsense where Democrats can engage in ballot harvesting and steal the election.
District 10 Ted Howze (R) V. Josh Harder (Incumbent D)
2020 Primary Results
| Candidate | Votes | Percent | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael J. “Mike” Barkley |
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
5,561 |
3.5%
|
||
| Ryan Blevins |
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
3,536 |
2.2%
|
||
| * | Josh Harder |
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
69,668 |
44.1%
|
|
| Bob Elliott |
(Party Preference: REP)
|
20,481 |
13.0%
|
||
| Ted Howze |
(Party Preference: REP)
|
53,574 |
33.9%
|
||
| Marla Sousa Livengood |
(Party Preference: REP)
|
5,270 |
3.3%
|
||
Together the Republican vote consists of 50.2% of the vote in this primary election compared to the Democrat’s 49.8%.
In 2018 the vote went to Josh harder when he beat out incumbent Jeff Denham with 52.3% to Denham’s 47.7%.
In 2016 Republican Incumbent Jeff Denham beat Democrat Michael Eggman 51.7% To Eggman’s 48.3%.
It will still be a really close race but if Republicans can get the turn out like they did in 2016, then they have a really good shot at flipping this district.
District 21 David G. Valadao (R) V. TJ Cox (Incumbent D)
2020 Primary Results
| Candidate | Votes | Percent | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| * | TJ Cox |
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
30,697 |
38.7%
|
|
| Ricardo De La Fuente |
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
7,309 |
9.2%
|
||
| Roque “Rocky” De La Fuente |
(Party Preference: REP)
|
1,912 |
2.4%
|
||
| David G. Valadao |
(Party Preference: REP)
|
39,488 |
49.7%
|
||
Together the Republican vote consists of 52.1% compared to the Democrats 47.9%.
In 2018 Valadao barley lost reelection, he got 49.6% of the vote to Cox’s 50.4%.
In 2016 Valadao beat Democrat Emilio Huerta 56.7% to Huerta’s 43.3%.
This race is probably one of the most likely seats to flip if Republicans can get voters to turn out.
District 25 Mike Garcia (R) V. Christy Smith(D)
2020 Primary Results
| Candidate | Votes | Percent | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Cooper III |
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
4,474 |
2.9%
|
||
| Getro Franck Elize |
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
6,317 |
4.0%
|
||
| Christopher C. Smith |
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
2,089 |
1.3%
|
||
| Christy Smith |
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
49,679 |
31.7%
|
||
| Cenk Uygur |
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
9,246 |
5.9%
|
||
| Aníbal Valdéz-Ortega |
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
4,920 |
3.1%
|
||
| Mike Garcia |
(Party Preference: REP)
|
37,381 |
23.9%
|
||
| Kenneth Jenks |
(Party Preference: REP)
|
682 |
0.4%
|
||
| Steve Knight |
(Party Preference: REP)
|
29,645 |
18.9%
|
||
| David Lozano |
(Party Preference: REP)
|
6,272 |
4.0%
|
||
| Daniel Mercuri |
(Party Preference: REP)
|
913 |
0.6%
|
||
| George Papadopoulos |
(Party Preference: REP)
|
2,749 |
1.8%
|
||
| Otis Lee Cooper |
(Party Preference: NPP)
|
2,183 |
1.4%
|
||
Together the Republican vote consists of 49.6% compared to the Democrat’s 48.9%. This seat was originally held by Democrat Katie Hill but she resigned after a personal scandal.
In 2018 Democrat Katie Hill beat Republican Steve Knight 54.4% to Knight’s 45.6%.
However, in 2016 Steve Knight beat out Democrat Bryan Caforio 53.1% to Caforio’s 46.9%.
As for the case in District 10, if Republicans can get out the vote like they did in 2016 then they could most definitely gain this seat back.
District 39 Young Kim (R) V. Gil Cisneros (D Incumbent)
| Candidate | Votes | Percent | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| * | Gil Cisneros |
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
81,402 |
46.9%
|
|
| Young Kim |
(Party Preference: REP)
|
83,941 |
48.3%
|
||
| Steve Cox |
(Party Preference: NPP)
|
8,286 |
4.8%
|
||
Together the Republican vote consists of 48.3% compared to the Democrats 46.9%.
In 2018 Democrat Gil Cisneros beat Young Kim 51.6% to Kim’s 48.4%.
In 2016 Republican Ed Royce beat Democrat Brett Murdock 57.2% to Murdock’s 42.8%.
Again this is a case of if Republicans turn out to vote like they did 4 years ago.
District 45 Greg Raths(R) V. Katie Porter (D Incumbent)
2020 Primary Results
| Candidate | Votes | Percent | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| * | Katie Porter |
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
112,986 |
50.8%
|
|
| Rhonda Furin |
(Party Preference: REP)
|
2,140 |
1.0%
|
||
| Christopher J. Gonzales |
(Party Preference: REP)
|
5,443 |
2.4%
|
||
| Peggy Huang |
(Party Preference: REP)
|
24,780 |
11.1%
|
||
| Greg Raths |
(Party Preference: REP)
|
39,942 |
17.9%
|
||
| Don Sedgwick |
(Party Preference: REP)
|
28,465 |
12.8%
|
||
| Lisa Sparks |
(Party Preference: REP)
|
8,861 |
4.0%
|
||
Together the Republican vote consists of 49.2% compared to Democrats 50.8%.
In 2018 Democrat Katie Porter beat Republican Incumbent Mimi Walters 52.1% to Walter’s 47.9%.
In 2016 Walter’s beat Democrat Ron Varasteh 59.6% to Varasteh’s 41.1%.
Notice a pattern yet? If we do what we did 4 years ago, then we have a real shot taking back the house from Pelosi.
District 48 Michelle Steel(R) V. Harley Rouda (D Incumbent)
2020 Primary Results
| Candidate | Votes | Percent | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| * | Harley Rouda |
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
99,659 |
46.7%
|
|
| Brian Burley |
(Party Preference: REP)
|
25,884 |
12.1%
|
||
| James Brian Griffin |
(Party Preference: REP)
|
2,714 |
1.3%
|
||
| John Thomas Schuesler |
(Party Preference: REP)
|
4,900 |
2.3%
|
||
| Michelle Steel |
(Party Preference: REP)
|
74,418 |
34.9%
|
||
| Richard Mata |
(Party Preference: AI)
|
5,704 |
2.7%
|
||
Together the Republican vote consists of 50.6% Compared to the Democrats 46.7%.
In 2018 Democrat Harley Rouda beat Republican Incumbent Dana Rohrabacher 53.6% to Rohrabacher’s 46.4%.
In 2016 Rohrabacher beat Democrat Suzanne Savary 58.3% to Savary’s 41.7%.
Despite attempts by the California Democrats to keep President Trump off the 2020 ballot, he will appear on it because even the California Supreme Court wasn’t buying the whole “need for tax returns” argument and ruled that he did NOT have to release his tax returns to appear on the ballot. Trump can give Republicans the hype and turn out they need to flip these seats if they choose to embrace his supporters rather than try to play the middle ground, RINO approach that has failed the California Republican party for years.
The California Right 