Pollsters at the University of Southern California who used a unique method to predict President Trump’s 2016 election victory say it looks like he is heading for reelection next week.
“When we calculate how many electoral votes each candidate could get based on state level averages of the own-intention and social-circle questions, it’s looking like an Electoral College loss for Biden,” the poll’s website says. “We should note that our poll was not designed for state-level predictions, and in some states we have very few participants. Even so, in 2016 it predicted that Trump would win the electoral vote.”
The pollsters attempt to control for “social judgements,” a term similar to the “social desirability bias” made famous by the Trafalgar Group, an outlier polling operation that continues to show Trump with leads in battleground states. Trafalgar claims its method captures the “shy Trump voter” many speculated pushed him over the top in 2016.
But USC’s pollsters said they have used similar methods for years, scoring a perfect record in elections they have attempted to predict so far.